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One morning in late April, César Herrera brought his elderly mother to a branch of the Banco Bienestar, or Welfare Bank, in Mexico City to withdraw her pension payment.

Cuellar, a relatively conservative Democrat who represents a district that stretches along the U.S.–Mexico border around Laredo and pokes up to San Antonio, is charged with 14 counts of conspiracy, wire fraud, and so forth related to allegations that he was paid under the table to influence U.S. policy on behalf of Azerbaijan’s national oil company, SOCAR, and the Mexican bank Banco Azteca.

“In fact, last year we finished with a budget deficit of 3.4% of GDP, the highest since 1989,” said Gabriela Siller, the director of analysis at Nuevo Leon-based Banco Base.

López Obrador’s debt mountain, while less dramatic, is “a way of setting the political agenda for the next administration, a way of placing his imprint on the next administration,” said Siller, the analysis chief at Banco Base.

“It’s an election year, so all these reform initiatives can be seen as something to get people to vote for Morena,” said Gabriela Siller, the director of analysis at Nuevo Leon-based Banco Base.